A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
