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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.