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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still